Can you bet on games being postponed due to COVID? Because if you can, it might be a smart value play. As of publication, the Premier League has postponed five of this weekend’s matches, and more could be called off at any time. This would be a shame for all the obvious reasons, but also because a friend who loves Tottenham is on a European vacation and has tickets to Sunday’s match against Liverpool.
If the game goes postponed, maybe he’ll go viral like the Texas couple who traveled to England to see Tottenham play Burnley. Of course, maybe the other lesson we should learn is that, if you’re an American Tottenham supporter, stay home. You’re bad luck. All odds for this week’s picks are via Caesars Sportsbook.
AC Milan vs. Napoli
Date: Sunday, Dec. 19 | Time: 2:45 p.m. ET | TV: CBS Sports Network | Live stream: Paramount+
Featured Game | AC Milan vs. Napoli
The Serie A title (the scudetto) race is the best in Europe. Only four points separate the top four teams, and none of them are Juventus, which are always a threat to join the party. Two of them are AC Milan and Napoli, and this is a massive match for both. With the way Inter Milan are playing as we approach the new year, neither side can afford to drop points to keep pace.
Unfortunately for Napoli, this match is coming at a horrible time. Napoli topped the Serie A table until last week and had been the best team in the league, but they’ve run into a lot of bad injury luck. The team is without star striker Victor Osimhen, and there’s a good chance it’ll be without Lorenzo Insigne, Kalidou Koulibaly and Fabian Ruiz again in this match. That is the team’s spine, and Napoli doesn’t have the depth to withstand these losses. That’s why it has managed only four points from its last five league matches. AC Milan are dealing with its injuries, but it comes into Sunday’s match in much better shape. The Pick: AC Milan (+128)
Atalanta vs. Roma
Date: Saturday, Dec. 18 | Time: 9 a.m. ET | TV: CBS Sports Network | Live stream: Paramount+
Roma are riding the Jose Mourinho roller coaster, and while there are plenty of hills and valleys to get through, there are also two distinct trends that are difficult to ignore. One is that Roma have been bumslayers this season. Against Serie A clubs outside the top seven, Roma are 8-4 for an average of 2.0 points per match. Against the top seven, Roma are 1-3-1 for an average of 0.8 points per match. If we remove the season-opening win over Fiorentina, they’re 0-3-1 and have been outscored 5-1 in those matches.
Then there’s Roma on the road. Not counting a 3-2 loss to Lazio — they share a stadium — Roma have lost four of seven away matches, and the three wins have come against Salernitana, Cagliari and Genoa. Those three clubs make up the bottom three of the league right now. Meanwhile, Atlanta got off to a sluggish start to the season but have played very well of late. They have lost only two of its last 14 matches, and they were both Champions League losses. They have won six straight in Serie A play, and I have a suspicion we’ll see a seventh on Saturday. The Pick: Atalanta (-150)
Tottenham vs. Liverpool
Date: Sunday, Dec. 19 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | TV: None | Live stream: Peacock
Featured Game | Tottenham Hotspur vs. Liverpool
Will my friend see a win if this match is played? Probably not, but that’s not what I’m betting anyway. By the time this match kicks off Sunday, it will have been two weeks since Tottenham last played, so while we know they will have fresh legs, it’s hard to know what kind of condition they’re in. Who knows how much training the team has had, which players have been able to train, and who hasn’t? So, essentially what I’m doing here is I’m betting on Liverpool, but I’m betting on them in a way that provides a bit more value.
I’m betting on Liverpool to score goals. If Spurs are not ready, Liverpool should run roughshod and score a bunch of goals. If Spurs are ready, well, they have not been all that great defensively, and they’re playing Liverpool, who will likely score goals. So let’s take the over! The Pick: Over 2.5 (-160)
Weekend Parlay
We’re going with a three-leg parlay this week instead of the standard four. Partially due to postponed matches, but mostly due to there not being much value this weekend. This one pays +108.
- RB Leipzig (-450)
- Barcelona (-275)
- Real Madrid (-400)
|
Last Week |
3-1 |
+2.26 |
|
Overall |
26-21 |
+5.94 |