Did we just eliminate a bunch of teams from Super Bowl contention after Week 1? The Buccaneers failed to cover in Week 1 last season, but they were the first Super Bowl champion to do that since the 2014 Patriots. (The last non-Tom Brady Super Bowl champion that didn’t cover in Week 1: the 2011 Giants).
Underdogs went 12-4 against the number in Week 1, with nine outright winners, the most in the first week of a season since 1983. Here are the ATS records for all 32 teams, league and team trends, and over/under records for the 2021 season.
AFC East
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The over went 4-1-1 when Buffalo played divisional games last season. The Bills (-3.5) travel to Miami this week.
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: Vegas has been over-valuing the Patriots more in the post-Brady era than it did in his final days in New England. The Pats were 9-8 ATS in their last 17 games with the GOAT and are 7-10 since he left.
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Dolphins were a league best 7-1 ATS at home last season, and that includes an active streak of six straight covers. Miami (+3.5) welcomes Buffalo to town this week.
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The over cashed in both Patriots/Jets games last season after being a winning ticket just once in the four seasons prior.
AFC North
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The Ravens have covered nine of 10 regular-season games during the Lamar Jackson era when they are an underdog, but the lone loss ATS came in Week 3 of 2019, against the Chiefs. Jackson and Ravens travel to KC this weekend.
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Steelers covered in Week 1, giving them consecutive Week 1 covers for the first time since 2007 and ’08. They’ve covered consecutive games to open a season just once over the past decade (2016).
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The Bengals were 2-6 ATS last season when the game went under the total but 7-1 when the over hit. They covered in Week 1, a game in which the over hit.
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The Browns were 7-1 outright last season when favored by more than a field goal, but they failed to cover six of those games. Cleveland is a double-digit favorite this week vs. the Texans.
AFC South
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 1-0
What we know: Public sentiment is out on Jacksonville, and if that drives this spread up through a key number … it might not matter. The Jags are 3-6 ATS since 2019 when they are an underdog of at least 7.5 points.
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Eagles covered nine of their first 11 games in the Frank Reich/Carson Wentz era in 2017, but the league (or betting public at least) over-corrected. The Eagles closed that season just 1-4 ATS and the Colts, headed by Reich and Wentz, failed to cover in Week 1.
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The under hit in Week 1 last season much like it did this season … but in 2020, a Titans under ticket didn’t cash again until Week 9.
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The Texans opened last season with four straight losses against the number and were 1-7 ATS through Week 9 before going 5-3 ATS in the second half of their season. As a 3-point underdog in Week 1, the Texans covered with ease in their 37-21 win.
AFC West
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Chargers have not just won five straight games outright (twice as underdogs, including last week against Washington), they’ve covered in each instance.
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Broncos enter this week looking to cover as favorites in consecutive weeks for the first time since Weeks 7-8 of 2016. They are an early 6-point favorite at Jacksonville.
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The Raiders led the league with 13 overs last season (matching their total from the previous two seasons combined) and kicked off 2021 with another one.
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 1-0
What we know: They failed to cover the 5.5-point closing line in Week 1 against the Browns, yet the Chiefs are still a league-best 11-3 ATS in September since 2017.
NFC East
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The over has not hit in a Washington home game since Week 4 of last season.
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: Football on Thursdays has developed a nice little pattern over the past decade-plus. Since the beginning of 2011, here are the over/under records on Thursdays by game total: fewer than 45 points (39-39-1), 45-49.5 points (33-21), at least 50 points (11-18-1). This total will fall into the “coin toss” bucket, but since 2019, road teams are an impressive 20-12 ATS on Thursdays.
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The Cowboys failed to cover all of Dak Prescott‘s five starts last season, but at no point was the closing spread (+9) a loser against the reigning Super Bowl champions on opening night.
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Eagles covered their final four home games of 2020, with the under connecting in three of those games.
NFC North
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Packers were embarrassed in Week 1 and will be a popular bounce-back pick on Monday Night vs. Detroit, but be careful. Green Bay fail to cover in consecutive games twice in the second half of last season (Weeks 10-11 and Weeks 14-15).
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The over went 5-1 in Chicago’s final six games over 2020 and got there in Week 1 despite an underwhelming effort by the Bears.
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The Lions are just 1-11 outright over the past two seasons against the NFC North, but they are an even 6-6 ATS in those games.
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 1-0
What we know: During the Kirk Cousins era (since the beginning of 2018), the Vikings are just 3-8 ATS when the over/under reaches 50.
NFC South
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Saints are 9-3 ATS over the past two seasons when playing against a divisional opponent (7-1 in their past eight). They’ve dominated those games against the number, but the totals have been a coin flip (6-6 after going under four times last season). The Saints are in Carolina this weekend.
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The Bucs played one Thursday night game last season, and the following week (with extended prep time) they beat the Packers 38-10. Their 31-point cover margin (they were 4-point underdogs) tied for their highest of the season. In Tom Brady’s last New England season, the Pats shut out the Jets 33-0 following their lone Thursday Night game, covering by 23.5 points.
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Falcons are 7-1 ATS during the Matt Ryan era when they are a double-digit underdog, winning two of those games outright. The Falcons are getting 12.5 from the Bucs.
ATS: 9-7
O/U: 6-10
What we know: Three teams tied for the fewest home covers last season (two): the 49ers, Vikings and Panthers. The Panthers have a chance to match that number just two weeks into this season after holding on for a Week 1 cover against the Jets (19-14 win as a 3.5-point closing favorite).
NFC West
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Cardinals’ game went under last week, something that should be expected as they didn’t hit an over on the road a single time last season. That said, they did go over in five of eight home games in 2020 and host the Vikings this weekend.
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 1-0
What we know: Since Week 10 of last season, the Rams are one of six teams to cover at least two thirds of their games (over that same stretch, the Colts are 4-5 against the number).
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Seahawks are 8-4 ATS in their past 12 regular-season home games (this is their only home game in the first four weeks of the season).
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The 49ers collapsed late in Week 1 to miss out on covering a spread they had in the bag midway through the fourth quarter, but they should bounce back. In 2019 and ’20, only the Saints (12) covered more road games than the Niners (11).