NFL, college football betting market watch


Here is our weekly look at how the NFL and college football betting markets are shaping up leading into the weekend.

For consistency, lines, totals and betting percentages are from Caesars Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted. The betting percentages are not specific to the current line or total and are designed to provide a snapshot of the early action. The look-ahead lines were offered in advance of the previous week’s games. Most numbers were re-opened Sunday night.


NFL market watch

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (Thursday)

Last week’s look-ahead line: Cardinals -3, 53
Sunday: Cardinals -3.5, 53
Wednesday: Cardinals -6.5, 50.5
Spread action: 60% of the bets and 95% of the money wagered is on the Cardinals.
Total action: 77% of the bets and 53% of the money is on the over.

Note: The line moved from Cardinals -3.5 to -6.5 after it was reported that Packers star receiver Davante Adams had tested positive for COVID-19. In addition, Green Bay receiver Allen Lazard was put on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Tuesday and is expected to miss Thursday’s game.

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions

Last week’s look-ahead line: Eagles -3.5, 49.5
Sunday: Eagles -3, 48.5
Wednesday: Eagles -3.5, 48
Spread action: 58% of the bets are on the Lions, but 67% of the money wagered is on the Eagles.
Total action: 51% of the bets and 88% of the money is on the over.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Last week’s look-ahead line: Falcons -1.5, 47.5
Sunday: Falcons -2.5, 47
Wednesday: Falcons -3, 46
Spread action: 81% of the bets and 98% of the money wagered is on the Falcons.
Total action: 55% of the bets and 98% of the money wagered is on the under.

Note: Caesars Sportsbook reported taking a $520,000 bet on the Falcons -3 (-105).

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Last week’s look-ahead line: Bills -11, 49
Sunday: Bills -13.5, 49.5
Wednesday: Bills -13.5 (-115), 49.5
Spread action: 92% of the bets and 97% of the money wagered is on the Bills.
Total action: 67% of the bets and 79% of the money wagered is on the over.

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears

Last week’s look-ahead line: 49ers -3.5, 43
Sunday: 49ers -4, 43
Wednesday: 49ers -3.5 (-115), 39.5
Spread action: 60% of the bets and 98% of the money wagered is on the 49ers.
Total action: 62% of the bets are on the over, but 97% of the money wagered is on the under.

Note: Caesars Sportsbook reported taking a $500,000 bet on the 49ers -3.5 (+100).

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Last week’s look-ahead line: Browns -3, 45
Sunday: Browns -3, 43.5
Wednesday: Browns -35, 42.5
Spread action: 54% of the bets are on the Steelers, but 67% of the money wagered is on the Browns.
Total action: 59% of the bets are on the over, but 95% of the money wagered is on the under.

Note: Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield said Wednesday that it is “absolutely possible” that he plays Sunday. Mayfield missed last week’s game against the Broncos with a shoulder injury.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Last week’s look-ahead line: Colts -2.5, 49
Sunday: Colts -2.5, 49.5
Wednesday: Colts -1, 49
Spread action: 87% of the bets and 84% of the money wagered is on the Titans.
Total action: 55% of the bets and 98% of the money wagered is on the over.

Note: Caesars Sportsbook reported taking a $500,000 money-line bet on the Colts (+100).

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets

Last week’s look-ahead line: Bengals -3.5, 45
Sunday: Bengals -9.5, 44
Wednesday: Bengals -10.5 42
Spread action: 97% of the bets and 55% of the money wagered is on the Bengals.
Total action: 83% of the bets are on the over, but 96% of the money wagered is on the under.

Note: The Bengals have not been double-digit favorites on the road since Week 17 of the strike-shortened season of 1982. The preseason line on this game was Bengals -1.

Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans

Last week’s look-ahead line: Rams -14, 46
Sunday: Rams -15, 46
Wednesday: Rams -14.5, 77.5
Spread action: 88% of the bets and 85% of the money wagered is on the Rams.
Total action: 55% of the bets and 90% of the money wagered is on the over.

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers

Last week’s look-ahead line: Chargers -6, 47.5
Sunday: Chargers -5.5, 48
Wednesday: Chargers -6, 49
Spread action: 59% of the bets and 64% of the money is on the Chargers.
Total action: 75% of the bets and 97% of the money is on the over.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks

Last week’s look-ahead line: Seahawks -3, 43.5
Sunday: Seahawks -3, 43.5
Wednesday: Seahawks -3 (-115), 43.5
Spread action: 68% of the bets and 91% of the money wagered is on the Seahawks.
Total action: 56% of the bets and 94% of the money wagered is on the under.

Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos

Last week’s look-ahead line: Broncos -4, 44
Sunday: Broncos -3.5, 44
Wednesday: Broncos -3 (-115), 43.5
Spread action: 63% of the bets and 97% of the money wagered is on the Football Team.
Total action: 55% of the bets and 58% of the money wagered is on the under.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Last week’s look-ahead line: Buccaneers -4, 50.5
Sunday: Buccaneers -4.5, 50.5
Wednesday: Buccaneers -5.5, 50
Spread action: 94% of the bets and 97% of the money wagered is on the Buccaneers.
Total action: 70% of the bets and 87% of the money wagered is on the over.

Note: The Saints have not been this large of home underdog since 2017 against the Patriots.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

Last week’s look-ahead line: Cowboys -2.5, 52
Sunday: Cowboys -1, 53
Wednesday: Cowboys -1.5, 55
Spread action: 58% of the bets and 92% of the money wagered is on the Cowboys.
Total action: 65% of the bets and 94% of the money wagered is on the over.

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (Monday)

Last week’s look-ahead line: Chiefs -13, 54
Sunday: Chiefs -10, 52
Wednesday: Chiefs -10, 52.5
Spread action: 63% of the bets and 71% of the money wagered is on the Chiefs.
Total action: 63% of the bets and 58% of the money wagered is on the under.


A bookmaker’s approach to college football lines

Circa Sports is responsible for the first college football lines to hit the betting market each week. The book posts its opening lines at 11 a.m. PT on Sundays and offers $3,000 betting limits to all comers, including professional bettors. Within the industry, Circa Sports is what’s considered a “sharp book.” Their limits grow rapidly through the week and, by the time kickoff approaches, will be among the largest in the betting market.

Matt Metcalf, sportsbook director for Circa Sports in Las Vegas, is sharing his bookmaking approach with ESPN this football season.

Struggling to get a read

Northwestern has been one of the toughest teams to get a read on for Metcalf. “I’ve really struggled making their numbers,” Metcalf said. “Because of the style they play, they can hang around in certain games and appear more competitive than they are, but then they show up at Nebraska and lose by 30.”

Metcalf opened Northwestern as a 4-point home underdog to Minnesota this week and received one-way action on the Gophers, driving the line to as high as -8 on Sunday. In the first three hours the game was on the board, Metcalf said he did not receive a bet on Northwestern.

“Stylistically and matchup-wise, when does Minnesota go on the road and lay a touchdown at Northwestern? That just seems like such a huge spread,” Metcalf said. “That’s kind of my handicapping style. I tend to revert back to history and think about when the last time this team laid this amount of points against this school. Minnesota-Northwestern was a huge trap for me. If I would’ve just ignored all my thoughts and just looked at the numbers we had, I probably would’ve opened Minnesota -6.”

Success of Circa’s opening lines

Eight weeks into the season, Metcalf feels good about the success he has had with opening college football lines. He reviewed some of the biggest line moves from previous week and estimated that 75% of his numbers were on the right side of the shifts.

“We’re definitely getting more right than we’re getting wrong,” Metcalf said. “But we open a very opinionated number, so we know a lot of these things are going to move. We’re trying to open our numbers pointed directly at the sharp guys. We’re not taking into account the money we’re going to see on the weekend with the public. We know some of these are going to run, but we just try to open up a sharp number. I’m happy where we’re at.”

Hardest line to make

The Circa oddsmaking team had significant disagreement on what the opening line on the Kansas-Oklahoma State should be.

“We had spreads ranging all the way from [Oklahoma State] -17 to -37,” Metcalf said. “I had the high one. I was at 37. Me making high, and the person who made it low, we both realized that we were off.”

They opened the Cowboys as 28-point favorites over the Jayhawks. The line had grown to Oklahoma State -31 as of Wednesday.

Alabama-Georgia

Metcalf would have Georgia as a 1-point favorite over Alabama if the teams were to meet this week. Georgia was off last week, so Metcalf did not make any adjustments to his power ratings to the Bulldogs or Crimson Tide. He did move Ohio State’s power rating up three points.

“I would have Alabama -5 on a neutral field versus Ohio State and Georgia -6 on a neutral field versus Ohio State,” Metcalf said.



Source link

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on tumblr
Tumblr
Share on stumbleupon
StumbleUpon