NFL Week 12 betting nuggets


Road teams continue to dominate this season, covering nearly 59% of the time. That is on track to be the highest mark in the Super Bowl era. Road teams are also four games over .500. It would be the second straight season road teams post a winning outright record, after that had never previously happened since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.

This week features some of the closest lines we have seen all season, as the average line of 3.5 is tied for the sixth-shortest in any week in the Super Bowl era.

One of those games features the San Francisco 49ers laying a field goal against the Minnesota Vikings at home. Kyle Shanahan has lost nine straight games as a home favorite, the longest such streak by any coach in the Super Bowl era. Overall, he is 3-16-2 ATS.

On the other hand, the longest active cover streak in the league belongs to the New England Patriots, who have won and covered five in a row after their 2-4 start. They were 12-1 to win the division after Week 6, and now they are in first place. However, the Tennessee Titans are 5-0 outright as an underdog this season and hope to join the 2009 Cincinnati Bengals as the only teams to win their first six games as an underdog within a single season.

Season Stats

Favorites: 8-7 ATS (5-8 SU), 70-92-1 ATS this season (98-64-1 SU)

Road teams: 11-4 ATS (8-7 SU); 96-68-1 ATS this season (84-80-1 SU)

Unders: 10-5 (92-71-2 this season)

Best records ATS: Green Bay (9-2), Dallas (8-2), Arizona (8-3)

Worst records ATS: New York Jets (2-8), Washington (3-7), Tampa Bay (3-6)

Teams favored in every game: Kansas City, Tampa Bay

Teams to be underdog in every game: Detroit, Houston, New York Jets (Houston favored this week)


Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-7), Sunday at 1 ET

  • New England has covered five straight games, the longest active streak in the league.

  • Tennessee is 5-0 outright as an underdog this season. The only team in the Super Bowl era to win its first six games as an underdog is 2009 Cincinnati (started 6-0).

  • Tennessee is 4-1 ATS on the road this season.

  • New England is 0-5 ATS with more than six days rest since the start of last season.

New York Jets at Houston Texans (-2.5), Sunday at 1 ET

  • Neither team has been favored in a game all season entering this week. The only other team that has yet to be a favorite is Detroit.

  • New York is 2-8 ATS this season, including 0-3 ATS when getting less than six points.

  • New York is 0-5 ATS on the road this season.

  • Houston is 3-1 ATS this season with Tyrod Taylor starting. Taylor is 9-1 ATS in his last 10 starts including playoffs, dating back to 2017.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at New York Giants, Sunday at 1 ET

  • Daniel Jones is 5-9 ATS in his career as a home underdog, but he’s won his last two games as a home underdog.

  • None of New York’s five home games have gone over the total (0-4-1).

  • New York has covered four of the last five meetings and six of the last eight. Philadelphia has been favored in all of those games.

  • New York is 5-0 ATS off less than six days rest since the start of last season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 ET

  • Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS on the road this season.

  • Indianapolis has covered four straight games as an underdog.

  • Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 ET

  • Eight of Jacksonville’s 10 games have gone under the total this season.

  • Atlanta is 3-6 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season and 9-17 ATS as a favorite since 2018.

  • Atlanta is 6-1 ATS all-time against Jacksonville with five straight covers.

Carolina Panthers (-2) at Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1 ET

  • Miami is 0-3 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3.

  • Miami has covered three straight games.

  • Carolina is 10-3 ATS on the road under Matt Rhule.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5), Sunday at 1 ET

  • Ben Roethlisberger is 6-1 outright and ATS as an underdog against Cincinnati. Roethlisberger is 23-12 ATS in his career against Cincinnati including the playoffs, though he has lost each of the last two meetings outright as a favorite.

  • Cincinnati has failed to cover its last three home games.

  • Zac Taylor is 3-6 ATS as a favorite and 1-3 ATS as a home favorite.

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:05 ET

  • Denver is 0-4 ATS in its last four games when the line is between +3 and -3.

  • Denver is 9-2 ATS off a bye since 2010, including 2-0 ATS under Vic Fangio.

  • Eight of Denver’s 10 games have gone under the total this season.

  • Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five games and 0-3 ATS in its last three games as a favorite.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-3), Sunday at 4:25 ET

  • Minnesota has played nine one-score games, most in the NFL, including three overtime games and five games decided by three points or fewer.

  • San Francisco has lost nine consecutive games outright as a home favorite, all since the start of last season. That is the longest losing streak as a home favorite in the Super Bowl era. San Francisco is 0-4 as a home favorite this season. Shanahan is 8-13 outright as a home favorite, the second-worst mark of any coach in the Super Bowl era (min. 15 games). He is 3-16-2 ATS as a home favorite, the worst mark of any coach in the Super Bowl era (min. 10 games).

  • Minnesota is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

  • Minnesota has covered four straight road games (4-1 ATS this season).

Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 4:25 ET

  • Green Bay is 8-0 ATS after a loss over three seasons under Matt LaFleur.

  • Green Bay has covered seven straight meetings including all six with Aaron Rodgers.

  • Green Bay is 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records this season. All four games went under the total.

  • Aaron Rodgers is 10-6 ATS against Matthew Stafford, but Stafford has covered four of the last five meetings.

  • Aaron Rodgers has only been a home underdog six times in his career entering this week including the playoffs. The last time was in Week 2 of 2018 when Green Bay tied Minnesota, 29-29. Rodgers is 4-1-1 ATS and 3-2-1 outright as a home underdog in his career.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5), Sunday at 8:20 ET

  • Baltimore is 2-6 ATS as a favorite this season and 1-6 ATS in Lamar Jackson starts (all as at least a three-point favorite).

  • Baltimore has covered the last three meetings.

  • Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in division games and 5-14 ATS in conference games since the start of last season.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team (-1), Monday at 8:15 ET

  • Seattle games are 8-1-1 to the under this season, including 5-0-1 after a loss and 6-0 in conference games. The under is 13-2 in Russell Wilson’s last 15 regular-season starts.

  • Home underdogs are 4-0 ATS on Monday Night Football this season.

  • Seattle is 2-6 ATS as a road favorite since the start of last season (1-6 ATS in last seven games).

  • Seattle is 2-5 ATS in Russell Wilson starts this season, failing to cover in the last three instances.

  • Washington is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 Monday Night games. Last year’s upset win in Pittsburgh snapped a nine-game ATS and outright losing streak on Monday games.



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