AC Milan are now the favorites to win the Scudetto this season. After winning away at Napoli, one of the other contenders at the top of the table, Stefano Pioli’s side are now in poll position to take to down the title. Of course Inter Milan are still right in the thick of it and have more or less the same chances as their crosstown rivals. After their Champions League elimination against Liverpool it will be key to understand how Simone Inzaghi’s team will react. Juventus are still staging their comeback but it might be too late to be involved in the title race, as a seven point gap is just so large with only ten matches remaining.
Let’s dive right into this week’s rankings:
Title contenders
The teams that are in the race to win the scudetto this year.
1. AC Milan (+1)
AC Milan are now finally at the top of our power rankings. Coach Stefano Pioli managed to score some crucial points in the last month, including the win against Inter Milan in the Derby della Madonnina and especially the victory against Napoli that basically made Rossoneri the team to beat in the current Serie A season. The team got hot at the right time too. Since the beginning of February they’re averaging 1.4 goals per match on 1.1 expected goals. Over that same time, Inter are also averaging 1.4 goals per match but on 2.2 xG. Olivier Giroud was the man that brought the club at the top of the table while Zlatan Ibrahimovic was out for injury. The Swedish striker is now back and can help his team to win the Scudetto eleven years after the last time.
2. Inter Milan (-1)
Despite winning against Salernitana, Inter Milan lost the first place of these power rankings for the first time of the year. Simone Inzaghi’s team was eliminated by Liverpool in the Champions League’s round of 16 despite winning at Anfield. The reaction after this elimination will tell us a lot about their title ambitions. One good sign is that Lautaro Martinez finally scored four goals in the last two matches. Inter Milan desperately needed his goals to compete and struggled mightily when both he and Edin Dzeko failed to score for an entire month. It will be an amazing title race, with not just the Milan sides but also Napoli chasing until the very end.
3. Napoli (-)
The focus might be on the two teams above them, but Napoli are definitely a team still in the title race despite their loss against AC Milan. That was for sure a big disappointment for their ambitions but there are only three points that separate them from the top and considering how both AC Milan and Inter Milan struggled over the last few weeks, they can still hope to win it all. The question is can they score enough goals. Defensively they’re excellent and their 0.7 goals and 0.8 xG conceded per match are both the best totals in Serie A. But can a healthy Victor Osimhen provide enough spark to propel them to the top of the table? Only Lautaro Martinez has more non-penalty xG per 90 this season than Osimhen’s 0.59, but his finishing hasn’t been great leaving him with only seven goals from his 8.36 xG.
4. Juventus (-)
Step by step Juventus are getting back on track. Juventus coach Massimiliano Allegri hasn’t lost a Serie A match since last November against Atalanta and Juve are currently in a good place to get a Champions League’s spot for next season. They might be a little behind to compete for the Scudetto this year but they can still hope to get into the race if the teams ahead of them struggle. There will be also a crucial match against Inter Milan on April 3. That’s a must win if we’re even going to talk about the title race. But regardless, it’s likely than not that in the next few weeks we will see them in the top three of our rankings.
European spots
Clubs that are fighting to play in Europe next season.
5. Atalanta (-)
Atalanta have fallen back over the last few weeks. Despite their good run in the Europa League, losing against Jose Mourinho’s AS Roma was probably the moment when coach Gian Piero Gasperini realized that the top four this season is getting less and less lifely, considering Juventus’ good run of form. Most worrying for the usually hgh-octane side from Bergamo is that in four of their last six Serie A matches they’ve failed to get even one total xG, and have only scored more than one goal once in their last seven Serie A matches. Atalanta need to secure their fifth place as soon as possible because both AS Roma and Lazio are pushing behind and they are improving their results week after week.
6. AS Roma (+1)
Jose Mourinho finally found some consistency with seven positive results in a row and can now dream for something more than was expected only a few weeks ago. Tammy Abraham is performing really well and already scored 13 goals in this Serie A season and leads the league in non-penalty xG with 13.71. Other players such as Nicolò Zaniolo and Gianluca Mancini are also helping the team consistently in the recent weeks. New signing Sergio Oliveira’s impact was crucial for the growth of this side and he’s expected to stay in the summer after the initial six-months loan.
7. Lazio (-1)
Lazio and AS Roma have switched their positions in this ranking basically every single week. They are two similar teams, because they are struggling to keep the pace with the teams ahead with many ups and downs. We can finally see manager Maurizio Sarri’s style beginning to assert itself now even as the team hasn’t found consistency. They complete the second most passes in Serie A with 566.8 per match, have the second highest pass completion percentage at 87.1% but, crucially, only create 8.5 chances per match, the seventh worst total in the league. Eventually their possession must lead to something or they’ll end up stuck on the outside looking in.
8. Fiorentina (-)
Vincenzo Italiano’s good work is definitely something that everyone is noticing. However, the side is struggling a bit in the last weeks, at least in part thanks to the loss of Dusan Vlahović to Juventus. It’s also quite normal that teams such as Fiorentina that run so much during the games at one point of the season they have a decrease in terms of performances.
Middle of the pack
These teams are sure already to stay in the league but have no chance to play in European competitions next season.
9. Sassuolo (+1)
Sassuolo needed to adapt after former coach Roberto De Zerbi left last summer and Alessio Dionisi came in. In the first part of the current season Sassuolo faced some difficult moments in terms of results on the pitch, while they always showed a good level of soccer. Now they totally seem back on track and showed good progress over the last few weeks. Players such as Gianluca Scamacca and Giacomo Raspadori are scoring week after week, but most of all Domenico Berardi is performing amazingly (12 goals, 14 assists) this season. His 0.66 combined xG and xA this season is his best total over at least the last five years.
10. Hellas Verona (-1)
Hellas Verona are definitely one of the best teams in the middle of the table. Good quality of soccer, a coach with clear ideas and players such as Giovanni Simeone and Gianluca Caprari who are keeping this club safe from the relegation zone. The current season started badly under Eusebio Di Francesco, but since Igor Tudor came in everything has changed.
11. Torino (-)
Former Hellas Verona coach Ivan Juric’s team is going through a disappointing moment. A very solid start in the first part of the season, but they recently had some ups and down, even if they managed to draw against Juventus two weeks ago. This year they can’t aspire to play European soccer, but this must be a goal for the next season under Juric.
12. Empoli (-)
Aurelio Andreazzoli’s work made this team safe and they won’t be involved in the relegation fight this season. Andrea Pinamonti leads Empoli with nine Serie A goals, 9.4 expected goals, and 72 shots this season while Petar Stojanovic leads Empoli with 1,809 touches, 1,086 passes, 168 ball recoveries and his 50% on target rate is the highest on the team.
13. Bologna (-)
Coach Sinisa Mihajlovic is verbally fighting with Joe Saputo, the owner of the club, who said to the press that he prefers “motivated people on his side”. Meanwhile the team is still in the same situation floating in the middle of the table. It’s extremely likely that the two sides will part ways at the end of the season and next week there will be a crucial meeting between the coach and the owner of the club. The Mihajlovic era might be over soon in Bologna.
14. Udinese (-)
With two games in hand that still need to be played, Udinese can be considered out of the relegation battle. Coach Gabriele Coffi did a very good job in the last weeks and he handled a difficult situation when many Covid-19 cases inside the squad prevented them from training and playing normally. If things go well in the next weeks, he deserves to be confirmed for next season.
Relegation zone
These sides are struggling and are fighting to keep their spot in Serie A for next season.
15. Cagliari (-)
After a good period, Cagliari lost against Lazio at home but this doesn’t have to affect out view about Walter Mazzarri’s work, which has been outstanding in the last weeks. They have time and are also better placed to recover and score points to achieve their goal as soon as possible.
16. Spezia (+1)
Thiago Motta’s team is definitely one of those we have to consider for relegation but last year’s experience is helping them be in a better position. While at the beginning of the year the coach seemed to be close to leaving the club, crucial wins against Napoli and AC Milan kept his job and he’s now working to achieve the goal of the American ownership.
17. Sampdoria (-1)
After a good start when Marco Giampaolo came back to the club, the team showed some tactical issues in their last matches against Atalanta and Udinese especially. Mentally, this team seems to be insecure and this led to conceding goals like the ones last weekend. Key players such as Antonio Candreva and Fabio Quagliarella need to make an impact while former Toronto FC striker Sebastian Giovinco finally made his debut with his new club.
18. Venezia (-)
Paolo Zanetti’s side is now struggling after losing at home against Sassuolo and are very much in danger to be relegated only one year after they made their Serie A’s comeback. Despite investing good money in January, Zanetti hasn’t yet been able to find the right combination on the pitch.
19. Genoa (-)
Another week without a win for Genoa, who have only won one match in the whole season so far and still have no wins under coach Alexander Blessin. The draw against Empoli was disappointing because this team is trying hard to score points but things are not going well at all. Genoa haven’t won any of their last 25 league games (D15, L10), and only three teams in Serie A’s history have recorded a longer streak without a win: Ancona between 1993 and 2004 (30), Perugia between 2003 and 2004 (26) and Varese, two times, between 1965 and 1966 (26) and 1971 and 1972 (28).
20. Salernitana (-)
Despite a good performance in the first part of the match against Inter Milan, Davide Nicola’s team lost badly at San Siro and this was another disappointing result for a season that seems to have only one possible ending: the relegation.