We are heading into the last month of this incredible Serie A season and we don’t know yet who is going to win the Scudetto, which teams are going to play European soccer next season or which three sides will be relegate to Serie B. All the races are exciting and there are likely to be surprises in store up and down the table over the final few weeks. With five or six games to go anything can still. Let’s go into the rankings to figure out what has changed since last week.
Serie A title contenders
The teams that are in the race to win the scudetto this season.
1. Inter Milan (-): After beating Juventus to put their bad stretch firmly in the rearview mirror, Inter Milan are on a three match Serie A winning streak thanks to wins against Hellas Verona and Spezia. During the week, the Nerazzurri also won the second leg of the Coppa Italia semifinal against AC Milan, a further indication that this is the team to beat as they chase a back-to-back Scudetto for the first time in over twelve years. Next week Simone Inzaghi’s side will finally make up their match against Bologna leaving all of the top three teams with the same matches left to play.
Remaining matches (6): Roma (H), Bologna (A), Udinese (A), Empoli (H), Cagliari (A), Sampdoria (H),
2. AC Milan (-): It was a difficult week for AC Milan even if they won last Friday against Genoa at home. Losing the derby against Inter Milan in the Coppa Italia semifinal is a bitter pill to swallow. As happened in February, this match can also have some repercussions in the title race. Back then it was Inter Milan that were psychologically affected by the loss and this time it might happen the opposite. The Rossoneri really need a reaction in the next few matches and that won’t be easy given that they travel to Lazio and then host Fiorentina. The pressure is now on them.
Remaining matches (5): Lazio (A), Fiorentina (H), Hellas Verona (A), Atalanta (H), Sassuolo (A).
3. Napoli (-):
A disappointing draw against Jose Mourinho’s AS Roma for means that Napoli is now likely to be out of the title race, but we shouldn’t underestimate them considering how well they’ve done during the season. Nigerian striker Victor Osimhen continue to be the most crucial player of the club. He’s scored five goals in the last four games, and he leads Napoli and ranks tied for 9th in Serie A with 12 goals this season, despite having the second most expected goals on the team at 10.4. Lorenzo Insigne leads Napoli with 13.9 xG, in part thanks to the eight penalties he’s attempted.
Remaining matches (5): Empoli (A), Sassuolo (H), Torino (A), Genoa (H), Spezia (A).
European spots
Clubs that are fighting to play in Europe next season.
4. Juventus (-): Thanks to their late draw at home against Bologna, Juventus remain on track to finish in the top four and qualify for the next edition of the UEFA Champions League, their minimum target for this season. Meanwhile, the Bianconeri won the second leg of the Coppa Italia semifinal vs. Fiorentina and will play in the final against Inter Milan on May 11. That’s the only chance they have this year to win a title and Massimiliano Allegri can’t miss the opportunity especially after losing the Supercoppa last January again against Inter Milan.
5. Roma (-): Jose Mourinho’s side has been really impressive in 2022 and hasn’t lost a single Serie A match since January 9. The Giallorossi are now fighting for fifth place which can be a good starting point for next season. Roma are the team with the longest current unbeaten run in Serie A (12 games – W7, D5), and that’s the longest unbeaten streak for the Giallorossi in a single league since May 2016 (17 under Luciano Spalletti).
6. Fiorentina (-): What a season for the Viola. Despite losing the Coppa Italia’s semifinal Vincenzo Italiano’s side is probably the most surprising team for the level of the game played throughout the year. Fiorentina have won their last three league games and haven’t recorded a longer winning streak since April 2018 (six with Stefano Pioli). The Viola could also keep clean sheets in two consecutive Serie A games for the first time this season if they make it happen this weekend against lowly Salernitana, after the 1-0 against Venezia.
7. Lazio (-): Maurizio Sarri’s side, after losing the derby against AS Roma last March, seem to have finally found the right balance despite drawing against Torino last weekend. Lazio’s forward Ciro Immobile, with seven goals in 14 Serie A matches against AC Milan, could become the fourth player in the Big-5 European Leagues (after Robert Lewandowski, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo) to score more than 25 goals in a single season at least three times since the start of 2016/17 (his first season at Lazio).
8. Atalanta (-): Another very disappointing week for Atalanta with a loss against Hellas Verona and continued struggles after a solid first part of the year. The question now will be also about the future of coach Gasperini who might decide to leave the club after a very successful cycle that might come to an end. Atalanta have suffered nine defeats in this Serie A season, the last time they recorded more losses in a single league campaign was in 2017/18 – 10 (finishing 7th that term).
Middle of the pack
These teams are definitely going to stay in the league but have no chance to play in European competitions next season.
9. Hellas Verona (+1): A huge win against Atalanta for the team coached by Igor Tudor, who, since his appointment, brought this club to the edge of the European spots. Key player Gianluca Caprari has delivered seven assists in Serie A this season: only two Verona players have provided more in a single Serie A season since 2004/05 (9 Hallfredsson in 2014/15 and 8 Rômulo in 2013/14). \
10. Sassuolo (-1): Sassuolo’s games in the second part of this Serie A season have seen the most shots attempted, 443 (233 attempted and 210 conceded) and the most goals scored, 50 (28 scored and 22 conceded). On the other hand, Sassuolo are, with Venezia, the teams that have gone the longest without a home clean sheet in Serie A. Their last home clean sheet came back on September 26th against Salernitana, since then they’ve conceded 23 goals in 13 games.
11. Torino (-): A nice draw against Lazio last weekend showed, once again, how difficult is to beat Ivan Juric’s side this season. Torino have the highest successful tackle rate in Serie A this season at 43%, however they have attempted the 4th-fewest tackles per game at 14.
12. Bologna (-): Since coach Sinisa Mihajlovic was forced to step away from the sideline for cancer treatment, his team seems to have found some motivation to end the season strong. Bologna drew against both AC Milan and Juventus in the last few weeks. Bologna have gone from conceding 1.63 goals per game on average in the first half of this season (31 in 19 games played) to 1.08 in the second half (14 in 13 games played). In 2022 only five teams have conceded fewer goals than the Rossoblù in Serie A.
13. Udinese (-): Even if Udinese lost the match against Salernitana in the middle of the week, they are in a good spot now. Gerard Deulofeu leads Udinese with 161 touches inside their opponent’s box, 66 chances created, and 5.5 expected assists. He has scored 11 Serie A goals this season, tied for most on the team with Beto.
14. Spezia (-): The expected loss against Inter Milan doesn’t really change the good job that Thiago Motta is doing in this second part of the season and they are now in a very good position to play Serie A soccer again next year. M’Bala Nzola is on his longest run without a goal in Serie A (11 appearances), since his brace against Atalanta last November.
15. Empoli (-): A difficult moment for Aurelio Andreazzoli’s team that are enduring their longest winless run in Serie A (16 games without a win, D8,L8): this is the longest current such streak in the Big-5 European Leagues in 2021/22 while the Tuscan side remain the only team not to win since mid-December. Empoli are without a win in the second half of this season in Serie A (D7 L7): no team in Serie A history has avoided relegation without winning a match in the second half of a campaign (the last side to record no wins was Pescara in 2012/13).
Relegation zone
These sides are struggling and are fighting to keep their spot in Serie A for next season.
16. Cagliari (+1): A crucial win for Cagliari against Sassuolo allow Walter Mazzarri’s side to breath a bit more but next game against Genoa will be fundamental to the course of the last month of their season. Cagliari have reached 18 points in this second part of the Serie A season (W5 D3 L6): considering points won in 2022 only, they would be in 11th position (9 points above the relegation zone). They’ve done an admirable job of turning their season around, but will it be enough.
17. Sampdoria (-1): Another disappointing week for Marco Giampaolo’s side who are now really at risk and must score some points before it’s too late. Sampdoria have in fact lost 20 games in Serie A this season, already equaling their worst such tally in a single Serie A campaign, 20 in 2019/20. They have never recorded more in an entire season in the top flight.
18. Genoa (-): Despite suffering three defeats in the last three matchdays, Alexander Blessin is the Genoa manager who in this championship has maintained the highest points per game average (0.91 per match, with 10 points in 11 games). Since he has been with the Grifone, as many as six Serie A teams have collected fewer points than the Ligurians. It still may not be enough, however, unless either Cagliari or Sampdoria struggle over their last handful of matches.
19. Salernitana (+1): For the first time we have Salernitana in a different position in our rankings, thanks to their victory in the middle of the week against Udinese. It’s probably still too late for them, but they have a bit more of a chance at a miracle now compared to the last few weeks. Salernitana have not won at home in Serie A since October 2 (1-0 v Genoa). Overall, that remains their only home win in Serie A this season, the joint-worst record in the Big-5 European Leagues, along with Genoa and Metz.
20. Venezia (-1): They are now likely to end up last. Venezia have lost their last seven Serie A matches, only once have they recorded eight consecutive defeats in a single season in this competition, between September and October 1949.