The United States men’s national team began its World Cup qualifying campaign back in September, and it got off to a below-average start. Two draws saw pressure build on a team that had hoped to cruise to Qatar, but the Americans did not lose until their fifth match, and they haven’t lost since. Friday’s impressive 2-0 win over Mexico has this team atop the table in Concacaf entering Tuesday’s clash with Jamaica at 5 p.m. ET live on Paramount+.
Through seven matches, here’s the team’s schedule, results and then a look at how this team has compared to expectations, and whether they’ve surpassed them or are where most expected them to be.
Schedule and results
Sept. 2: USMNT 0, El Salvador 0
Sept. 5: USMNT 1, Canada 1
Sept. 8: USMNT 4, Honduras 1
Oct. 7: USMNT 2, Jamaica 0
Oct. 10: Panama 1, USMNT 0
Oct. 13: USMNT 2, Costa Rica 1
Nov. 12: USMNT 2, Mexico 0
Nov. 15: USMNT vs. Jamaica
Jan. 27, 2022: USMNT vs. El Salvador
Jan. 30, 2022: Canada vs. USMNT
Feb. 2: USMNT vs. Honduras
Mar. 24: Mexico vs. USMNT
Mar. 27: USMNT vs. Panama
Mar. 30: Costa Rica vs. USMNT
Standings
|
USA |
14 |
| Mexico | 14 |
|
Canada |
13 |
|
Panama |
11 |
|
Costa Rica |
6 |
|
Jamaica |
6 |
|
El Salvador |
6 |
|
Honduras |
3 |
How many points are needed to qualify?
There is no real set number, and it is challenging to relate this current format to what’s happened in the past. Historically there have been six teams in this round of qualifying, but now there are eight, meaning more matches and more competition.
Usually 15 points had been enough, but with four extra matches that likely won’t be enough this time around for teams looking to finish in the top three. We’re halfway through and fourth place Panama already has 11 points. What we’ve seen in the past is 1.5 points per game is the number to aim for and pretty much always enough to qualify, or at the very least earn fourth place, which means an intercontinental playoff. When the USMNT missed out on the 2018 World Cup, they earned just 1.2 points per game.
With this new format of playing 14 games, that means 21 points should have you in the top four, though both the goal and expectation for the United States is top two. If the U.S. beats Jamaica, then they would need probably just two wins from their remaining six games to qualify.
The reality is that despite the rocky start, this team is now averaging two points per game andthey should cruise through qualification if they can come even close to replicating their recent form.
Can the team qualify in Jamaica?
No. Mathematically they cannot punch their ticket in Kingston, though they could in January if the results go their way.