Manchester City Losing Run: 3 Straight Defeats and What Has Gone Wrong

Seven games, seven wins, a record no manager had ever set. Three games later, three defeats and a six-point gap. The Manchester City losing run has turned the most commanding start in Premier League history into the division’s most urgent question.

The Manchester City losing run leaves them third on 21 points, behind Arsenal on 27 and Brighton on 22. They have not won a league match since 17 October. Enzo Maresca says there is no panic. The numbers are more complicated than either the panic or the calm suggests.

The Three Defeats

The Manchester City losing run began at Villa Park on 24 October. Nicolas Jackson scored twice in a 2-1 Aston Villa win — Maresca’s first domestic defeat as City manager.

A week later, on 31 October, Brighton won 1-0 at the Etihad. City could not score at home against a side that defended the lead for most of the second half.

Then 7 November at the City Ground, and the worst of the three. Nottingham Forest led 2-0 inside 18 minutes through Jair Cunha and Liam Delap, against a team that had not scored at home all season. Rayan Cherki pulled one back after the interval before Delap’s second on the counter finished it 3-1.

Conceding First, Every Single Time

The clearest pattern in the Manchester City losing run is how early it goes wrong. City conceded the opening goal in all three defeats — on six minutes, 11 minutes and six minutes respectively.

That is not a tactical problem so much as a starting problem. A side that has to chase from the first ten minutes in three consecutive matches is not being outthought; it is being caught unprepared.

Individual Errors Have Decided Games

Every goal in the Manchester City losing run has a name attached to it. Josko Gvardiol was dispossessed before Forest’s opener. Marc Guehi failed to close down Delap for the third, and a poor Guehi touch had earlier let Jackson in for Villa’s first. Gianluigi Donnarumma was beaten too easily for Jackson’s second. Matheus Nunes switched off before Brighton’s only goal of the afternoon.

Five goals, five identifiable mistakes. The Manchester City losing run has been a sequence of lapses rather than a systemic collapse — which is both the reassuring reading and the frustrating one.

What the Numbers Actually Say

Here is where it gets interesting. Across the three defeats, City created roughly 5 expected goals and allowed under 3. They scored twice and conceded six.

In other words, they have been comfortably the better side on chance quality and lost all three anyway. Erling Haaland was denied at Forest by a clearance off the line. Enzo Fernandez missed a free header. City had 78% possession at the City Ground and still shipped three.

Possession has stopped being protection. That is the real finding of the Manchester City losing run: having the ball for three quarters of a match is no longer keeping it out of their own net.

The Rodri-Shaped Hole

The structural cause of the Manchester City losing run sits in midfield. Without Rodri, City have no player who reliably controls transitions. Fernandez and Cherki add creativity but not physical coverage. Ayyoub Bouaddi, 19, may grow into that role but is still adapting to it.

Opponents have worked this out. The method is simple: pass quickly beyond City’s midfield, run directly at the space behind a high defensive line, and compete for second balls. Forest ran six kilometres further than City over 90 minutes and won more of those duels. Maresca said afterwards that his side failed to match the intensity, and the distance covered backs him up.

The suggested fixes are unglamorous — separate Fernandez and Cherki for more protection, pick a more conservative full-back, vary the build-up against aggressive pressing rather than trusting technical superiority to solve it.

What Maresca Has Said

Through the Manchester City losing run, Maresca’s public position has been consistent and notably unbothered. He called for “balance” after the run of seven wins, saying he was concerned about aspects of the performances even in victory. After the Forest defeat his message was “no panic”, and that City would use the international break to work out what needed improving.

He also lost two defenders that afternoon. Guehi and Gvardiol were both withdrawn at half-time with injuries, and Gvardiol had already shown a problem earlier in the week.

Arsenal Have Taken Full Advantage

The Manchester City losing run would matter less if the rest of the division had stumbled too. It has not.

Arsenal have nine wins from ten and sit on 27 points, six clear. Martin Odegaard’s winner in a scratchy 1-0 against Hull City was the sort of result champions grind out rather than enjoy. Mikel Arteta has credited “sacrifices and commitment” rather than anything tactical.

Brighton, meanwhile, have overtaken City into second on 22 points — the same Brighton who won at the Etihad. Liverpool are fourth on 18.

Is the Title Race Over?

Six points in mid-November is recoverable, and the underlying numbers argue strongly that the Manchester City losing run is a blip rather than a trend. A side creating five expected goals and conceding under three across three matches will usually take points from them.

The caveats are real, though. The early run papered over weaknesses in transition, a reliance on individual quality and an unbalanced midfield. Those were always going to be exposed; it happened to be three fixtures in a row.

And off the pitch the club still awaits a sanctions ruling following the 115 charges verdict, which makes any points dropped now feel more expensive than usual.

What Happens Next

The Manchester City losing run gets its next test on Saturday 21 November at home to Fulham, a 12:30 kick-off and the kind of fixture a team in this position needs.

Then comes the one that will define the first half of the season: Arsenal v Manchester City at the Emirates on Sunday 29 November, 16:30. Win that and the gap is three. Lose it and it is nine with the December pile-up still to come.

Full fixtures and confirmed kick-off times are on the Premier League’s official site, and ESPN has Maresca’s full comments from Nottingham.

For more on how the season has taken shape, see our Matchweek 7 round-up and our coverage of Michael Carrick’s sacking at Old Trafford.